Hurricane Isaac

Public Advisory 35



430
WTNT31 KNHC 292031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012

...KIRK STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 47.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST. KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



644
WTNT34 KNHC 292049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND
INLAND FLOODING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 91.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM S OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC
WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS REPORTED AT MARSH
ISLAND LOUISIANA...AND A GUST TO 67 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. ALSO...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
CONTINUOUSLY AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* ALABAMA...2 TO 4 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE VALUES NEAR 7 FEET HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING.

AN UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTAL OF 22.5 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
ARABI LOUISIANA...WHICH IS NEAR THE NINTH WARD DISTRICT OF NEW
ORLEANS. AN OFFICIAL REPORT OF 17 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN
RECEIVED FROM AUDUBON PARK IN NEW ORLEANS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART